Masonry News

NOAA Forecasts a Wetter Winter on the East Coast: What It Means for Your Long Island Masonry

NOAA released its official U.S. Winter Outlook on October 15, 2026, and the headline for the East Coast is simple: the odds favor a warmer and wetter winter than average from December through February. A warmer forecast can sound like good news for patios, walls, chimneys and front steps. For masonry, though, the bigger word in that forecast is wetter. Water is what does the damage when the temperature drops, so this is a good time to look at your stone and brick before the season starts.

What happened

NOAA’s outlook covers December 2026 through February 2027. According to NOAA, a very strong El Nino is expected to shape the season. Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern U.S., including much of the East, and wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the southern tier of the country and along the East Coast.

Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said a very strong El Nino “will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream,” and added that “now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.”

NBC New York’s Storm Team 4 summarized the outlook for our area directly: NOAA is predicting a warm and wet winter for the tri-state area, with wetter-than-normal conditions expected for most of the East Coast, including the tri-state. NOAA also forecasts drought conditions to improve or end in parts of the East Coast by the end of January.

Keep in mind what a seasonal outlook is. NOAA’s outlooks give the likelihood that temperature and precipitation will be above, near or below average for the season as a whole.

What it means for Long Island homeowners

A tilt toward a warmer season average is not a promise that the ground and your masonry will stay above freezing. What the outlook does point to is more water around your home this winter. That matters because of how freeze-thaw damage works.

A National Institutes of Health technical bulletin on concrete and brick explains it plainly: freeze-thaw damage happens when water fills the voids of a rigid, porous material and then freezes and expands. A brick manufacturer’s homeowner bulletin says the same thing from the brick side. Brick that is allowed to stay saturated can develop spalling, where the face of the brick separates from the rest of the unit, and it is the result of repeated cycles of freezing and thawing on wet brick. Both sources point to the same pattern: the damage builds over multiple cycles.

For a Long Island property, the places that hold water are the places to watch:

Mortar joints on chimneys, stoops and brick walls that are already cracked or open.
Front steps and stoops, where water and snow collect on horizontal surfaces.
Retaining walls and patio edges where soil stays wet against the stone.
The base of brick walls near downspouts that dump water right at the foundation.

Both the National Park Service and the Brick Industry Association make a point that is easy to miss: find and fix the water source first. The Park Service’s guidance on repointing says it is a mistake to assume repointing alone will fix problems caused by things like leaking gutters, and that those problems should be dealt with before the masonry work. The Brick Industry Association’s maintenance guidance likewise says to investigate and determine the moisture source before attempting repairs.

What to do now

Walk the property this fall. Look for cracked or missing mortar, loose bricks or stones, and flaking faces on brick, chimneys and steps.
Check gutters and downspouts. They are meant to carry water away from the structure. Fix leaks and make sure downspouts are not dumping water against brick or stone.
Look at the grade. Soil around the house should drain well and slope away from the structure, not hold water against brick or stone.
Note small problems now. Freeze-thaw damage gets worse with each cycle, so open joints and cracks are better handled before a wet winter than after it.
Plan spring projects early. If you are thinking about a new patio, wall or steps, a wetter winter is a good reason to get the drainage and design conversation started before the season ends.

Get your masonry ready for a wet winter

Long Island Stone and Masonry works with homeowners throughout Nassau and Suffolk County on the exact problems a wet winter tends to expose. That includes masonry repair such as crack and joint repair and repointing, brick chimney repair from mortar touch-ups to complete rebuilds, and stoop repair and restoration, including repointing mortar and replacing damaged bricks.

If you have noticed cracked mortar, a loose step or water staining on brick, call (516) 210-4294 for a free estimate before the cold sets in.